China Gets Worst 2025 Growth Forecast Yet with UBS Downgrade

UBS Group AG has issued the most pessimistic forecast yet for China’s 2025 economic growth, predicting an expansion of just 3.4% as U.S. tariffs batter exports, Bloomberg News’ James Mayger reported.

China's exports to the U.S. could fall by as much as two-thirds in the coming quarters, with total overseas shipments projected to decline 10% in dollar terms this year.

The Swiss bank had previously projected 4% growth for China this year and held its 2026 estimate steady at 3%. Both forecasts are the lowest among major institutions tracked by Bloomberg.

“The tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges to China’s exports and will set forth major adjustment in the domestic economy as well,” UBS economists led by Tao Wang wrote.

UBS joins Goldman Sachs and Citigroup in cutting outlooks for China in recent days, with many analysts now skeptical that Beijing can meet its official 5% growth target for 2025.

If current tariffs persist, they could shave more than two percentage points off China's GDP growth despite anticipated stimulus measures, UBS warned.

Exports to the U.S. could fall by as much as two-thirds in the coming quarters, with total overseas shipments projected to decline 10% in dollar terms this year. The bank acknowledged a “high margin of error” in its forecasts due to the "extremely large uncertainty" around future tariff policies.