China Growth Seen Slowing To 4.6% In 2024

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.6% in 2024 and cool further to 4.5% in 2025, a Reuters poll showed, raising the heat on policymakers to roll out more stimulus measures amid deflationary pressures and a severe property slump, Kevin Yao reported for Reuters.

Recent data suggested the economy was starting 2024 on shaky footing.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 5.2% in 2023 - meeting the government's annual growth target, partly helped by the previous year's low-base effect marked by COVID-19 lockdowns, according to the median forecasts of 58 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy has struggled to mount a strong and sustainable post-COVID pandemic bounce, burdened by the protracted property crisis, weak consumer and business confidence, mounting local government debts, and weak global growth.

Recent data suggested the economy was starting 2024 on shaky footing, with persistent deflationary pressures and a slight pick-up in exports unlikely to kindle a quick turnaround in weak domestic activity.

December bank lending was also weak. "China’s economic outlook for 2024 will be shaped by the prospects of the real estate sector," analysts at Swiss Life Asset Management said in a research note.

"The government's aim is to reduce the oversupply that has built up in the sector in recent years, and to bring supply into line with actual demand. We, therefore, expect the slowdown to continue over 2024 and beyond."

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