Harris Holds 66 Electoral Vote Lead Over Trump: Data Scientist

Data scientist Thomas Miller has developed a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that he claims is more reliable than the polls often cited in the media as the best guide to the outcome on November 5, Shawn Tully reported for Fortune.

Miller identified the turning point in the campaign as Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention on July 31, when he suggested that Harris had misled voters about her race. I Photo: Kamala Harris Facebook

Instead, the Northwestern University professor uses a framework based on the betting odds set by individuals wagering their money not on the candidate they intend to vote for but on the one they expect to win.

Fortune followed Miller's predictions during the 2020 White House contest and the two Georgia Senate races that followed in early January 2021.

Miller was accurate within 12 electoral votes for the former and correctly predicted that the Democrats would win both Senate seats.

His forecasts for the margins of victory were also spot on. Miller's numbers show the Harris-Walz ticket well ahead, with the wide Democratic advantage settling into a remarkably stable pattern.

His model focuses on the "prices" posted on America's most active political betting site, PredictIT.

From now until Election Day, Miller is posting the projected electoral vote (EV) totals for the two candidates in real-time, updating the numbers shortly after PredictIT prices change, on his website The Virtual Tout.

As of 11 AM on October 2, Miller has Harris-Walz leading Trump-Vance by 302 to 236, a substantial margin of 66 electoral votes.

The bad news for Republicans: the Harris ticket has maintained this lead ever since the Harris-Trump debate three weeks ago, and bettors are showing little inclination to change their bets.

Miller identified the turning point in the campaign as Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention on July 31, when he suggested that Harris had misled voters about her race.

Before that misstep, Trump was polling at around 290 electoral votes, 20 more than the number needed to win. The day after the NABJ event, Harris surged ahead and has stayed in front since.