Don't Expect Human Life Expectancy To Grow Much More: Researcher

Humanity may be reaching the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study.

In 1990, the average improvement was approximately 2.5 years per decade. By the 2010s, it had dropped to 1.5 years.

Despite advancements in medical technology and genetic research — and an increasing number of people living to age 100 — these developments are not translating into significant gains in overall lifespan, said researchers who observed diminishing longevity improvements in countries with the longest-living populations, Mike Stobbe reported for the Associated Press (AP).

“We have to recognize there’s a limit” and potentially reconsider expectations about retirement age and the financial planning needed for retirement, said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago researcher and lead author of the study published in Nature Aging.

Olshansky and his team tracked life expectancy estimates from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The study focused on eight of the longest-living regions in the world — Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Switzerland.

While women continue to outlive men and life expectancy improvements are ongoing, they are happening at a slowing rate.

In 1990, the average improvement was approximately 2.5 years per decade. By the 2010s, it had dropped to 1.5 years — and was nearly stagnant in the US.

The US is particularly challenging, facing issues like drug overdoses, gun violence, obesity, and disparities that limit access to adequate medical care.

In one scenario, the researchers estimated the impact of eliminating all deaths before age 50 in the nine regions studied. Even then, the best-case increase in life expectancy was only 1.5 years, Olshansky noted.