Emerging Markets Set To Drive Global Economic Growth By 2035, S&P Global Report Reveals

S&P Global’s latest research highlights the pivotal role that emerging markets, including the Philippines, are expected to play in shaping global economic growth over the next decade.

Emerging markets, including the Philippines, are poised to drive global economic growth over the next decade, powered by advancements in technology, energy, and evolving trade dynamics, according to S&P Global’s latest research.

In its "Look Forward: Emerging Markets — A Decisive Decade" report, S&P Global identifies key trends and challenges that will define the economic trajectory of these countries through 2035.

The study forecasts that emerging markets will contribute approximately 65% of global growth by 2035, driven largely by countries in Asia such as China, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Yann Le Pallec, Head of Global Ratings Services at S&P Global, underscored the strategic importance of these markets, noting that they are positioned to expand their domestic economies while benefiting from the reconfiguration of global supply chains, trade, and investment.

"In the coming decade, emerging markets are strategically positioned to drive global economic growth through the expansion of their domestic markets and to benefit from the reconfiguration of supply chains, trade and investment," said Le Pallec.

The report reveals that emerging markets will see an average annual GDP growth of 4.06% through 2035, significantly outpacing the 1.59% growth projected for advanced economies.

This growth will be bolstered by favorable demographics, rich natural resources, evolving trade dynamics, and technological advancements in energy and manufacturing sectors.

However, these opportunities will be tempered by complex challenges, including geopolitical tensions, climate change impacts, and barriers to frictionless trade and globalization.

A central theme in S&P’s report is the uneven progress in income levels across emerging markets.

By 2030, the median GDP per capita in the largest emerging economies is expected to be only 31% of that in developed markets, highlighting the disparities in wealth distribution.

Public debt will also rise, although improved financial resilience and higher reserve buffers will make these markets less vulnerable to global financial shocks than in previous decades.

The report emphasizes the importance of investing in skills development and manufacturing automation as emerging markets must contend with competition from cheaper labor in frontier economies and the increasing mechanization of advanced economies.

Furthermore, emerging markets will play a crucial role in the global energy transition. By 2040, they are expected to develop nearly 6,000 gigawatts of clean energy projects, requiring over US$5 trillion in investments.

As emerging markets navigate this decisive decade, their success will depend on how effectively they balance growth opportunities with the challenges of a rapidly evolving global landscape.