Historian Allan Lichtman Predicts Harris To Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Race

Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, has announced his prediction for who will reclaim the White House this year: Vice President Kamala Harris.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last ten presidential elections. I Photo: Allan Lichtman Facebook

Lichtman explained in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that his prediction is based on 13 keys or “big picture true-false questions that assess the strength and performance of the White House Party,” according to reporting by Sudiksha Kochi and Karissa Waddick for USA Today.

Eight of these keys favor Harris, while three favor Trump.

“The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, there would only be five negative keys, which would still not be enough for Donald Trump to win back the White House,” Lichtman explained.

The keys include the following factors: whether the White House party gained House seats in the midterm elections; whether the sitting president is running for re-election; if the White House party avoided a primary contest; the presence of a third-party challenger; the strength of the short-term economy; and whether long-term economic growth has matched the past two terms.

Also among the keys were: whether the White House party has made significant policy changes; whether there has been sustained social unrest during the term; if the White House is free from major scandal; whether the incumbent or challenger is charismatic; and finally, the successes or failures of the White House’s foreign policy.