Historian Who Picked Harris to Win Set Off "Avalanche" Of Reactions

Americans spent the summer eagerly awaiting two pivotal political statements.

Earlier this month, Lichtman predicted Harris would defeat Trump. I Photo: Kamala Harris Facebook

The first was Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, who ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign.

Swift formally backed the vice president moments after her debate with Donald Trump, calling her a “steady-handed, gifted leader,” Marina Pitofsky reported for USA Today.

The second statement? It wasn’t from another pop star. Instead, some election-watchers waited on pins and needles for a prediction from Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old distinguished professor of history at American University who lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

That’s because Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election for decades, except for the race in 2000. He uses a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

Here’s how his model works: If six or more of the keys cut against the party in the White House, they're predicted to lose. Otherwise, Lichtman forecasts the party in power will win again.

Earlier this month, Lichtman predicted Harris would defeat Trump. He told USA Today he's received a larger response about his 2024 prediction than ever before.

“Maybe because of how high the stakes are in this election, and how extraordinary this election is: The sitting president stepping down right before the convention, the challenging candidate convicted of 34 felonies,” Lichtman said. “This has been an avalanche,” Karissa Waddick and Elizabeth Beyer also reported for USA Today.