Markets Struggle To Interpret U.S. Tariff Moves

The stock market initially welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory in November, but now investors are finding his policies difficult to predict.

If tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, markets may have to take Trump’s policy statements at face value—regardless of the consequences for stocks.

This uncertainty has led to months of volatility—after a strong November, the market slumped in December, rebounded in January, and then lost ground again in February, Callum Keown reported for Barron’s Daily.

The market is trying to anticipate Trump’s second-term policies, but despite many of them being well-publicized, investors have struggled to respond accurately.

Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve sent digital assets soaring over the weekend, though it was a campaign promise he had previously made.

However, if the White House proceeds with its plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday—something Trump has been vocal about—the market could react negatively.

Beyond direct tariff effects, the broader economic impact remains uncertain. Consumer spending data has weakened recently, with tariffs weighing on Americans’ minds. This week’s retail earnings reports could shed more light on the situation.

While investors may continue to second-guess Trump’s policies for years, this week could provide key insights into his economic agenda. If tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, markets may have to take Trump’s policy statements at face value—regardless of the consequences for stocks.