Economists at major securities firms estimate that Japan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) will drop by several tens of billions of yen (several hundreds of millions of dollars) due to infrastructure disruption following the strong quake that struck the country's Noto region on New Year's Day, as reported by Taiki Asakawa for Mainichi Shimbun.
Apart from a decline in GDP, the amount of damage caused to existing social infrastructure and homes is also likely tremendous. I Photo: Kyodo
As the damage to houses, stores, factories, and other buildings is severe, the direct economic impact of the disaster is estimated by experts to be in the trillions of yen (hundreds of billions of dollars).
Nomura Securities Co. chief economist Kyohei Morita has projected that nominal GDP for 2024 will drop by 23 to 50 billion yen (roughly $160 million to $350 million).
This is based on the assumption that economic activity in the seven cities and towns in Ishikawa Prefecture that suffered major damage would stagnate for two weeks to a month.
Meanwhile, Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., estimates Japan's nominal GDP will fall by approximately 64 billion yen (about $442.5 million) in 2024.
Apart from a decline in GDP, the amount of damage caused to existing social infrastructure and homes is also likely tremendous.
Government estimates of damage inflicted by past disasters include about 16.9 trillion yen (about $117 billion) in the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, some 9.6 trillion yen (around $66 billion) in the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake, and up to 4.6 trillion yen (some $32 billion) in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.
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