Russia's Wagner Group Monitored

An expert has told Euronews that Russia's Wagner mercenary group could stage an attack to sever the Baltic states from NATO, though he questioned if such a "suicidal" step would be taken, according to a report written for Euronews by Joshua Askew

Photo Insert: If Wagner became bold enough to attempt to punch a hole through the Polish defenses and take the Suwalki Gap, it would be a declaration of war.

Dr. Stephen Hall, lecturer of Russian politics at the University of Bath, suggested the assault may involve a small incursion, akin to a provocative false flag operation, to disguise direct Russian involvement.

But he was skeptical that this was feasible, owing to the immense geopolitical risks and Wagner's military strength. "Russia's primary objective has always been to show NATO is just a paper tiger," Hall told Euronews.

"By cutting off the Baltics they could highlight the alliance won't come to the aid of its members".

"This would be a major cataclysm for NATO," he continued, adding if the US-led military alliance did not come to the Baltics' aid in the event of an attack - as it is obligated to do - NATO would be "completely destroyed."

On Saturday, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki claimed some Wagner mercenaries had started moving to the Suwalki Gap, a sparsely populated land corridor sandwiched between NATO members Lithuania and Poland to the north and south, and Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad enclave to the east and west.

He called the move "undoubtedly a step in the direction of a further hybrid attack on Polish territory", alleging mercenaries will "probably dress up as Belarusian border guards and help irregular migrants enter Polish territory" and destabilize the situation.

The Suwalki Gap is immensely strategic since if Russia and Belarus were able to capture the 65km stretch the Baltics - comprising Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia - would be isolated, jeopardizing NATO's ability to defend the area.

Hall suggested this choke point was especially vulnerable to a potential assault by Russia's guns for hire, though said such a move was likely not workable. "Wagner are relatively well equipped, they're trained, and have the capacity in terms of not just the arms side of things, but also the propaganda," Hall told Euronews.

But he continued: "Even if Wagner were to punch a hole through the Polish defenses and take the Suwalki Gap, then that is a declaration of war."

"Its number of troops is insufficient, in my mind, to hold that territory."

For Hall, this military reality meant Wagner was likely to stick to hybrid tactics to "try and sow discord and weaken the enemy", such as information warfare, cyber attacks, and attempts at destabilization.

It is unknown exactly how many Wagner mercenaries are currently in Belarus, though it is estimated to be in the thousands. Polish PM Morawiecki said more than 100 had moved close to their border.

This is a minuscule amount compared to the 150,000 troops Russia invaded Ukraine with back in February 2022, according to Ukraine's defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov.

While an attack by Wagner was "possible", Hall said whether it was "plausible was another matter".

One thing changing the strategic makeup of the area was Finland's entry into NATO, with Sweden set to join in the near future. This means the Baltics now has a defense bulwark to the northeast and is not as easily "cut off" as before, explained Hall.

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