U.S. Economy Likely Added 153,000 Jobs Last Month

Getting a clear view of the US job market has been challenging over the past few months. Hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing disrupted the October jobs numbers, driving them down and setting up a payback rebound in November that likely overstated the strength of hiring, Paul Wiseman reported for the Associated Press (AP).

Over the past few years, the US economy and job market have demonstrated surprising resilience.

The December jobs numbers released by the Labor Department are expected to provide a more accurate picture of the labor market. Most economists predict solid but slowing hiring, especially compared to the boom years of 2021-2023.

According to forecasts from FactSet, US payrolls likely grew by 153,000 last month, down from 227,000 in November and 36,000 in October, which was affected by strikes and hurricanes.

Boston College economist Brian Bethune is slightly more optimistic, predicting 165,000 to 175,000 new jobs in December—a range he believes would strike a “Goldilocks balance” for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

“If we got a number in that range, he’d put his feet up on the desk and probably have a good bourbon,” Bethune said.

If these forecasts are accurate, the US economy generated about 2.1 million jobs in 2024, down from 3 million in 2023, 4.5 million in 2022, and a record 7.2 million in 2021 as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 lockdowns and layoffs in 2020.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a low 4.2% for December.

Over the past few years, the US economy and job market have demonstrated surprising resilience. In response to inflation reaching a 40-year high two and a half years ago, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023, bringing it to its highest level in over two decades.